Scary Movie: The Dems Iran Mirage

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

"...we...assess with moderate to high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons." CIA National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) November, 2007.

Why are some of my fellow Democrats now claiming that the coast is clear on Iran?

Did they not bother to read the entire NIE?

Are they mistakenly convinced, unlike the CIA, that Iran no longer intends to restart a nuclear weapons program.

On the campaign trail, Democrats hungry to pull the rug out from underneath Bush and Cheney's Iraq-like supercharged rhetoric on Iran, seized upon the NIE's finding that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

They are in danger of falling into NIE quicksand because the NIE also reconfirms that Iran continues to enrich uranium or plutonium (and any expert will tell you there is a very thin line between enriching low grade uranium for peaceful purposes, and high grade uranium for a weapons program), and that "...we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

Even more astounding, some analysts, notably former CIA operative Robert Baer, appear to have sipped some White House Kool Aide and claim that the White House was a co-conspirator in the NIE's preparation. The argument being that seeing roadblocks everywhere against an Iran military strike, Bush and Cheney decided to throw in the towel by conveniently hiding behind the NIE's assertion that Iran has no nuclear weapons program.

That is White House-generated spin.

In truth, my sources at the White House tell me that they were totally unprepared for the bombshell that the NIE created. Bush's emergency press conference showed how inept this White House has been on Iran. Bush vainly tried to convince the world that the NIE did not change the equation.

Did you see that pig flying over the White House?

Our allies also were taken aback by the NIE. France and Germany were planning to support a third UN Security Council resolution to further turn the economic screws on Iran. The NIE took a lot of wind out of that sail.

Sensible Democratic national security policy should support engagement ON OUR TERMS with Iran while supporting even stronger economic sanctions against it until Iran comes clean on its nuclear program. The NIE categorically states that the principal reason why Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 was due to international pressure.

Come 2009, Iran's atomic Ayatollahs could very well reverse course and decide to restart a nuclear weapons program.

Democrats should not be caught off guard if that happens.

I, for one, do not place much faith in the NIE's estimate that Iran has completely shut down its nuclear weapons program. If so, why then is Iran continuing to develop the next generation of Shahab ballistic missiles if it has no intention of arming them with nuclear weapons?

Bush and Cheney have been caught red-handed cooking the books on Iran.

Democrats should not let their justifiable anger at this White House guide their future Iran strategy.
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  1. This, unfortunately, further clouds the leadership situation in this country. Democrat or Republican, it doesn't matter, there is not one Presidential Candidate worthy of the office.
    Who is qualified to even open their mouths on Iran, let alone the rest of the Middle East? Hillary? certainly not, her "flip flopping" makes John Kerry look like a pair of Manolo Blahnik's.
    Huckawho? in today's world can we afford a President with less Foreign Policy experience than a high school Political Science professor?
    This lifelong Republican would cast his vote for Marc Ginsberg. Write in campaign? Anyone?

  2. And what do you think of the very popular view by a leading Israeli analyst Obadiah Shoher? He argues (here, for example, www. ) that the Bush Administration made a deal with Iran: nuclear program in exchange for curtailing the Iranian support for Iraqi terrorists. His story seems plausible, isn't it?


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