Based on President Obama's defiant ("I know better than
anyone") defensive crouch at his post-Paris attacks G-20 Turkey press
conference don't expect a sea change in White House policy against ISIS. Just think
of more sloppy spit across the ISIS swamp. Better yet, designate it
"Leading From As Far Behind as Possible, Version 2.0."
Smearing everyone who can smell the malodorous odor of a failing
Syria/Iraq/ISIS policy a mile away is a self-serving falsehood Obama frequently
resorts to when cornered. By persisting in this un-presidential conduct Mr.
Obama camouflages his own abject failures no longer able to be hidden - thus
sinking to the lowest level of Politician-in-Chief rather thanrising to what
the nation needs: a respected Commander-in-Chief as ISIS pounds at our doorstep.
In Obama's imaginary ISIS policy court of law President Defendant
wins in a directed verdict because the plaintiffs have no case - uncontestable
evidence notwithstanding. Worse, Obama's White House NSC staff: the foreign
policy equivalent of legal interns - endlessly engage in "spin room"
testimonials for their boss on the air as if this were a Obama campaign primary
debate rather than a presidential moment in the Situation Room.
For Obama, the rise of ISIS and its clear and present danger to
our homeland (let alone to our closest allies in Europe) is an inconvenient
truth getting in the way of an increasingly unconvincing legacy that he kept us
out of another Middle East war.
Just last Friday, hours before the Paris attacks, Obama boasted that the ISIS "jayvee squad" (his first utterances on ISIS) is "...on the run" and "has been contained." God forbid ISIS succeeds in a comparable attack in the US. I guaranty you Obama would be laughed off the podium if he tried to sell that Turkish taffy to a wounded, grieving American public.
Just last Friday, hours before the Paris attacks, Obama boasted that the ISIS "jayvee squad" (his first utterances on ISIS) is "...on the run" and "has been contained." God forbid ISIS succeeds in a comparable attack in the US. I guaranty you Obama would be laughed off the podium if he tried to sell that Turkish taffy to a wounded, grieving American public.
Memo to Mr. Obama: This "Cool Hand Luke" stuff has
worn awfully thin. Flaunting failed policies under false pretenses and false
promises cries out for a mid-course correction before it is too late. The
question for the American people is whether Obama is up to the job to keep us out
of a ground war in Syria, but leveraging American leadership to help defeat
ISIS.
Despite my palatable disappointment with Mr. Obama's shortcomings I have stated repeatedly in these pages that I agree with the President in one major respect: namely that the U.S. should not, whether by omission or commission, be dragged into a Syrian proxy ground war in which, as the Washington Post's eminent columnist Eugene Robinson warns, the "lines between the good guys and the bad guys are faint and shifting." Yet ironically, Mr. Obama is engaged in the very unchartered mission creep in Syria he has repeatedly vowed would never happen on his watch. Yet, the skies over Syria are dominated by the U.S. air force, over $500 million has been squandered training imaginary rebels, with more and more "boots on the ground" that the president asserts are merely wearing socks.
Despite my palatable disappointment with Mr. Obama's shortcomings I have stated repeatedly in these pages that I agree with the President in one major respect: namely that the U.S. should not, whether by omission or commission, be dragged into a Syrian proxy ground war in which, as the Washington Post's eminent columnist Eugene Robinson warns, the "lines between the good guys and the bad guys are faint and shifting." Yet ironically, Mr. Obama is engaged in the very unchartered mission creep in Syria he has repeatedly vowed would never happen on his watch. Yet, the skies over Syria are dominated by the U.S. air force, over $500 million has been squandered training imaginary rebels, with more and more "boots on the ground" that the president asserts are merely wearing socks.
Caveat Emptor: The Democratic Party is going to be holding Obama's
empty ISIS bag at its peril come Election Day, and Mrs. Clinton, should she be
the party's nominee, is going to be dragged down by the flotsam of a failed
Obama foreign policy unless she is prepared to fundamentally offer far more
than Obama's thin gruel – convincingly so!
Between fact and fiction lies a much more effective, coherent
American anti-ISIS strategy, but to get there it is important to unmask the sad
state of what Obama's team has bequeathed us to date - and the facts are not
pretty.
To put it in its most charitable light the US has attempted to
execute against ISIS four military strategies since it metastasized into a
terror caliphate state straddling Syria and Iraq:
• Form an effective, multinational coalition to shoulder the
burden against ISIS.
• Decay and degrade ISIS in Syria and Iraq via a sustained U.S.-led air campaign.
• Train & Equip "good" rebel and Kurdish Pesh Merga forces to avoid placing U.S. boots the ground.
• Expand covert CIA efforts to ID and eliminate ISIS leaders and interrupt their communications.
• Decay and degrade ISIS in Syria and Iraq via a sustained U.S.-led air campaign.
• Train & Equip "good" rebel and Kurdish Pesh Merga forces to avoid placing U.S. boots the ground.
• Expand covert CIA efforts to ID and eliminate ISIS leaders and interrupt their communications.
Let's assume for a moment that Obama's approach has had a beginning,
middle, and end to it. Here is what it has (not) produced:
11. The Incredibly Shrinking US-Led
Coalition: At the 2014 UN General Assembly, Obama proclaimed with great
fanfare that over 40 nations have joined the US-led anti ISIS coalition. But
according to the November 8 edition of the New York Times: "Allies Vanish
as U.S. Escalates Air War Against ISIS." Saudi and UAE planes have been
diverted to fight Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Canada, yes CANADA
declared two days ago it is removing its symbolically important 6 air force
jets from the struggle. Aside from France and to a lesser extent, the UK, and
Australia almost all US allies are providing lip service to the effort - some
training here, some ammunition there, but nothing to write home about. Two
weeks ago, Gen. John Allen, Obama's coalition "manager" resigned.
Reliable sources in Washington told me that Allen had had enough of petty White
House national security staff meddling to pressure him to spin that the
coalition is not, in reality, a figment of Mr. Obama's and his Secretary of
State's imagination. A Photo-Op
Coalition…more like a Potemkin Village façade.
2. The State of the Air Campaign Against ISIS: As of November 12, the US has conducted 6,353 sorties in Iraq and Syria. The other members of the coalition (notably France) have conducted 1,772 sorties against ISIS (less than 15% of the total inside Syria). The Sunni states which the White House would like you to believe are essential members of the coalition (Turkey, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) have flown a grand total of 28 sorties in over two years. You do the math: what percentage is 28 out of 6,353! I earn far more in interest in my bank checking account.
2. The State of the Air Campaign Against ISIS: As of November 12, the US has conducted 6,353 sorties in Iraq and Syria. The other members of the coalition (notably France) have conducted 1,772 sorties against ISIS (less than 15% of the total inside Syria). The Sunni states which the White House would like you to believe are essential members of the coalition (Turkey, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) have flown a grand total of 28 sorties in over two years. You do the math: what percentage is 28 out of 6,353! I earn far more in interest in my bank checking account.
Today, other than Jordan, no other
Sunni Arab state pilot is flying in direct attack against ISIS. Moreover, other
than warplanes from France there are no NATO allies flying
"coalition" sorties over Syria (UK planes are forbidden to cross into
Syrian airspace by PM Cameron), according to the Pentagon. Other NATO allies,
notably Germany, Italy, Spain, The Netherlands, and Poland...are AWOL. Sadly,
the air campaign against ISIS has been largely ineffective because Obama has
refused to permit U.S. Special Forces to establish forward sortie target
identification zones to direct anti-ISIS airstrikes, rendering 75% of the 6K+
sorties useless. He is waging this war
from the confines of the Oval Office rather than enabling his generals to
effectively prosecute it from the Pentagon to minimize the potential of U.S.
casualties.
But to his credit, Obama finally -
after over a year of stubborn refusal - authorized the Pentagon to begin a new
air campaign this week -Operation Tidal Wave II -- to attack hundreds of oil
transport trucks used by ISIS to export illicit oil from which it derives
millions of dollars to fund its operations. The only criticism from me: why did
it take the President over two years to authorize the obvious?
3. "Train & Equip" the Pesh Merga
Kurds and "Good Syrian Rebel Forces": Several days ago, the Kurdish Pesh Merga liberated
the strategic town of Sinjar. The successful battle for Sinjar was a rare, yet
critical triumph of American & Kurdish military coordination. Score one for
our side - a big plus for the Obama team. But the very Americans boots that
Obama promised were not on the ground were indeed on the ground to help direct
the fight. However, after Sinjar's liberation the NY Times quoted Kurdish
commanders lamenting that the U.S. has so far failed to provide the Kurds sufficient
arms and military intelligence support to sustain Kurdish ground efforts
against ISIS. Here, too, the White House
is using an eyedropper to dispense aid to the Kurds…penny wise and pound
foolish. Kurdish complaints of stingy
American aid permeate the media.
Not surprisingly, over 25% of all
arms shipments meant for Kurds and the so-called "good" rebels have
wound up in the hands of radical terrorist groups inside Syria. And when
CENTCOM General Austin was compelled under relentless Congressional questioning
to explain what training has been achieved, he was forced to admit - to the
utter chagrin of a White House unprepared for the unauthorized revelation -
that over $500 million has been wasted in a failed effort to train Syrian rebels
who would fight ISIS, rather than the Assad regime. That admission forced the
Administration to come up with the hasty alternative to deploy 50 Special
Forces to Syria promising they were not there to engage in any combat.
With respect to Obama's vow never to
place Americans into a direct combat role in either Iraq or Syria, Obama vowed
publicly 16 times - I counted, that he would never abide by dispatching
"boots on the ground" to Syria to combat ISIS. Well, in addition to
his announcement of this intention to dispatch 50 Special Forces to
"support but not fight" ISIS, the U.S. has 4,500 "boots on the
ground" in Iraq, and secretly, hundreds of those boots are crossing the
Iraqi-Syrian border regularly to assist Kurds and to help plot
counter-terrorist strikes against ISIS targets in Syria. We lost a courageous
American who was on the team to liberate Kurdish hostages...but that, according
to Mr. Obama's spin-meisters, was not a violation of his promise. Huh? Who are
they kidding?
4. Expand Covert CIA Efforts to
Take Down ISIS: Chalk up some major victories here. Mr. Obama has never been
shy about using drones and the CIA to attack terrorists - a commendable,
successful act of persistent presidential leadership. The U.S. has been
steadily picking off senior ISIS commanders in Syria, Iraq and Libya. We likely
seriously injured ISIS' Calif - Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi earlier in the year. In a
joint mission last week, the US and the UK put "Jihadi John" out of
our misery. Because of Mr. Obama's determination to support the covert CIA
program nine of 18 members of ISIS' ruling council have been dispatched -
forcing ISIS to reach down into its junior ranks for replacements.
This, President Obama, is not a Report Card to brag about. ISIS is not contained. Indeed, Obama's own CIA Director John Brennan warned Monday that ISIS poses a direct, imminent threat to the U.S.
What better to do?
A Field Guide to A Better
Anti-ISIS Campaign
Urgent U.S. Government
Retooling. Mr. Obama is high on rhetoric and low on governance. His
White House staff should take the time away from their spin zones to read
"Lessons Encountered: Learning from the Long War" just issued by the
Office of Joint Chiefs. There is a lack of cohesion and leadership within the
USG to fight ISIS, largely because Obama's National Security Advisor - Susan
Rice is completely out of her depth. The struggle against ISIS and Assad requires
the equivalent of a Marshall Plan, and is in desperate need of internal direction
and strategic innovation and leadership. There are inadequate manpower and
resources to do the job. While the U.S. military can bomb ISIS back to its
Middle Age comfort zone, then what?
If this coalition is unprepared to join the fight then it
has to be prepared to do the political, economic and diplomatic heavy lifting
to help transform a successful coalition military campaign into ISIS' death
knell:
- This requires a restructured and abundantly resourced State
Department able to assist foreign allies to train and equip local allied
police, counter ISIS' social media campaigns, and transform efforts to end the
Syrian Civil War as if Mr. Kerry's life depends on it (fortunately, Mr. Kerry
is getting that message). Getting urgent resources into the State Department
and other agencies part of the "internal coalition" requires an
urgent bi-partisan cooperation that Paris perhaps has created. It's a shame that
the fate of Syrian refugees may squander this window of opportunity. Yet,
Speaker Ryan is a rare Republican -- he has evidenced a willingness to put
aside politics for the sake of what's best for the nation and work with the
President. A moment of potential
bipartisanship on behalf of better securing the homeland.
- Developing a multinational plan to choke off
the flow of foreign fighters, ISIS continues to attract Arab
boots...especially from Tunisia and Saudi Arabia - the source of most Arab ISIS
recruits. If there is inadequate cooperation to stem the flow then
multinational sanctions must be imposed on ISIS recruit pools until their
governments decisively act. Has that enterprise even put that on the table? No!
And why are we such fools at home? If any single American
between the ages of 16 - 30 attempts to leave the US for a Middle East
destination claiming to visit grandmamma and does not have a return ticket and
is not back in two weeks...I'd interrogate him under a poly within the blink of
an eye until they are blue in the face.
Iraq's Government:
Obama deferred to Maliki, and Maliki helped begot ISIS. Now what? There is no
victory against ISIS until a coalition unites to force the Iraqi government to
integrate aggrieved Sunnis back into its governing structure. If Iraq is
disintegrates a rump Sunni state becomes the eternal incubator for the
Caliphate. Easier said than done, but, here too, Obama has had two toes in and
8 toes out of Iraq.
Arab Boots on the Ground:
Other than little, courageous Jordan, the other Sunni Arab states are
spectators to the ISIS play rather than players defending their neighborhood.
They are paralyzed, pretending that the spreading ISIS cancer is not a direct
threat to them. It's no longer sufficient for them to serve as the Amen Choir
as we do their dirty work. Let the Americans and Europeans fight this crusade,
one Moroccan told me. UNACCEPTABLE! Jawboning Morocco, Algeria, and the Gulf
States to deploy two combined ground divisions into the desert straddling the Syrian-Iraqi
border to carve the Caliphate in two robs ISIS of its supply lines of
communications is a NO BRAINER. Getting them to do it requires persistent,
(perhaps sanctioning and shaming Arab leaders) by the U.S., France and Russia.
It can be done. Failure is not an option. ISIS has killed far more innocent
Arabs than westerners: a fifteen-fold increase in ISIS inspired terrorism
throughout MENA in 2015 alone...the Beirut suicide bombing being the latest
shocking example. The numbers are staggering. Remember, Arab participation adds
an essential element of coalition legitimacy against ISIS.
Establish a Coalition-Built Safe
Haven And Get Syrians Into the Vienna Talks: Assad and the rebels seem as
unprepared as ever to compromise as we are diverted to the battle against ISIS.
This is where a SAFE HAVEN is essential in northern Syria. President Obama has
taken this off the table, rushing to false judgment that this would expand the
US footprint in Syria. Think of it...Germany is awash in Syrian refugees, but
it is doing NOTHING to assist the coalition to carve out a safe haven in
northern Syria to stem the flow the refugees and help create space inside Syria
to create a "zone of deconfliction" to enable Syrians to catch their
breath and establish an internal zone to promote some resolution of the
conflict. Berlin and NATO have a job to do here, Chancellor Merkel.
Kicking ISIS Offline &
Destroying ISIS Social Media Encrypted Communications. Defenders of
Edward Snowden take note: ISIS' rise is a direct consequence of his traitorous
revelations. ISIS has been able to release hit lists of British and American
military and civilian leaders. It is using cutting edge APP technology to
encrypt its inter Caliphate-European-U.S. communications and chats. The
"Islamic State Hacking Division" is headed by savvy Saudi-trained
social media experts. I know. I am working to take them down. The Cyber
Caliphate is the life-blood of terrorist planning. CIA Director Brennan pleaded
publicly for urgent help from Silicon Valley and from Congress to help kick the
Caliphate offline.
Twitter's corporate leadership has so far failed miserably
to stifle ISIS' use of its platform. ISIS still has a central Twitter app
called The Dawn of Tidings...downloaded through Google Play. The U.S. does not
have sufficient data mining capability to even monitor Jihadi unencrypted
communications. Facebook has lead here, but where is Google, YouTube, The
Internet Archives, Instagram, Tumblr, Skype, Ask.fm, Kik, Surespot, Sound
Cloud, Vidme, Justpaste.it, Whatsapp, and the others that are the vital social
media links utilized by ISIS combatants and its sympathizers. The Obama
Administration has no one of senior level as the Anti-ISIS Cyber Media Czar to
work with these enterprises to assert a Facebook-type campaign against ISIS.
ISIS uses these on-line social media tools, particularly TOR (a
software that encrypts a user's IP address) and routes internet traffic through
a series of off line servers (so called "onion routing") as part of
its DARK WEB to mask IP addresses to circumvent surveillance.
CIA Director Brennan stated at CSIS two days ago:
CIA Director Brennan stated at CSIS two days ago:
"I do think this is a time for
particularly Europe, as well as here in the United States, for us to take a
look and see whether or not there have been some inadvertent or intentional
gaps that have been created in the ability of intelligence and security
services to protect the people that they are asked to serve. And in the past
several years because of a number of unauthorized disclosures and a lot of
handwringing over the government's role in the effort to try to uncover these
terrorists, there have been some policy and legal and other actions that are
taken that make our ability collectively internationally to find these
terrorists much more challenging.”
In other words, we are tying our hands behind our backs by
preventing our counter-terrorism officials to deprive ISIS of impenetrable
encrypted communications. Surely, there is a better middle ground that protects
American privacy, but destroys ISIS' use of encrypted technology.
The losing "battle of ideas" against ISIS waged by a
sliver of American diplomats from the 19th century confines of the U.S. State
Department has been well-documented in the Washington Post. Jealous NSC
staffers have robbed the State Department of resources and authority to launch
on line communications campaigns -- serving as political censors to ensure that
nothing deployed by State on line against ISIS would impair the president's
image in the Arab world.
Notice to this NSC: The President's standing in the Arab world,
by poll after poll, is worse than that of George H.W. Bush. So much for
avoiding politics when it comes to national security. Fighting ISIS on line requires more Arab
minds working 24/7 on line to thwart, persuade, shame, and de-legitimate
ISIS. Unfortunately, other than several
covert anti ISIS social media initiatives in Jordan and the UAE, there are no
social media “war rooms” in the Arab countries combatting ISIS in their own
backyards.
We Americans, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, are all in harm's way -- more than ever in the cross-hairs of ISIS. Please, Mr. President, get off your high horse and roll up your sleeves. Paris was a 3am wake-up call.
We Americans, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, are all in harm's way -- more than ever in the cross-hairs of ISIS. Please, Mr. President, get off your high horse and roll up your sleeves. Paris was a 3am wake-up call.
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